Why pay more for something when I know I can get it for less?

It’s a question I ask before every fantasy baseball draft pick I make.

Last year I identified Corey Yelich as a superior value to Andrew Benetendi, who was routinely being selected 10 picks before Yelich.

So this is why the avoid list is important. I scratch off players that I think will offer similar production to players being selected in later rounds.

Last year it was Yelich over Benetendi. Looking for a similar example this year, I see Jean Segura going 10-20 picks later than Lorenzo Cain even though their numbers were fairly similar last season and Segura’s are better on average over the past three years. I could dig deeper but to save time I won’t. It’s not a pure apples to apples comparison since they don’t play the same position but you get the point.

PLAYER COMPARISON – 2018 STATS

	R	HR	RBI	BA	SB
Cain	90	10	38	.308	30
Segura	91	10	63	.305	20

Ozzie Albies is a great example. I was drafting him as much as I could last season, usually somewhere after pick No. 100.  The potential for a solid return on investment was clear. But going into 2019, Albies is no longer an under-appreciated commodity. Now his value is more in line with his ADP leaving very little room for return on investment.

I believe there are two second baseman, Brian Dozier and Daniel Murphy who are going many rounds later than Albies for the same production. Let somebody else burn a pick on Albies.

And please remember, nothing personal here. All these guys are great players. I just like other players more in relation to their price.

I’m using the current NFBC ADP at the time of writing this as a basis for rankings with the assumption that we’re talking about a traditional 5×5 roto format.

On the flip side, you can find my players to target in 2019 HERE

THE AVOID LIST

1-20 ADP

Jose Altuve, Astros

21-40 ADP

Kris Bryant, Cubs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays

41-60 ADP

Adalberto Mondesi, Royals
Ozzie Albies, Braves

61-80 ADP

Gleyber Torres, Yankees
David Dahl, Rockies

81-100 ADP

Jonathan Villar, Orioles
Victor Robles, Nationals

101-120 ADP

Jose Leclerc, Rangers

121-140 ADP

Amed Rosario, Mets