Why pay more for something when I know I can get it for less?
It’s a question I ask before every fantasy baseball draft pick I make.
Last year I identified Corey Yelich as a superior value to Andrew Benetendi, who was routinely being selected 10 picks before Yelich.
So this is why the avoid list is important. I scratch off players that I think will offer similar production to players being selected in later rounds.
Last year it was Yelich over Benetendi. Looking for a similar example this year, I see Jean Segura going 10-20 picks later than Lorenzo Cain even though their numbers were fairly similar last season and Segura’s are better on average over the past three years. I could dig deeper but to save time I won’t. It’s not a pure apples to apples comparison since they don’t play the same position but you get the point.
PLAYER COMPARISON – 2018 STATS
Ozzie Albies is a great example. I was drafting him as much as I could last season, usually somewhere after pick No. 100. The potential for a solid return on investment was clear. But going into 2019, Albies is no longer an under-appreciated commodity. Now his value is more in line with his ADP leaving very little room for return on investment.
I believe there are two second baseman, Brian Dozier and Daniel Murphy who are going many rounds later than Albies for the same production. Let somebody else burn a pick on Albies.
And please remember, nothing personal here. All these guys are great players. I just like other players more in relation to their price.
I’m using the current NFBC ADP at the time of writing this as a basis for rankings with the assumption that we’re talking about a traditional 5×5 roto format.
On the flip side, you can find my players to target in 2019 HERE
THE AVOID LIST
Can’t go wrong here. Early selections will shape your draft strategy.
Kris Bryant, Cubs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays
Adalberto Mondesi, Royals
Ozzie Albies, Braves
David Dahl, Rockies
Jonathan Villar, Orioles
Victor Robles, Nationals
Jose Leclerc, Rangers
Amed Rosario, Mets